Fresh data released by Belstat for the first half of the year paints a mixed picture of the Belarusian economy. Industrial output is already declining in several regions, yet real household incomes continue to grow and consumer spending is increasing. According to economist Yaraslau Ramanchuk, this does not reflect healthy economic growth. Instead, the current model is sustained primarily by Russia’s war against Ukraine, Belarus’s dependence on the Russian market and extensive state intervention.