Following the attack on a bus carrying Belarusian children in Russia’s Bryansk Region, Russian authorities, the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and state propaganda outlets almost immediately placed responsibility on Ukraine. However, Alyaksandr Lukashenka adopted a much more restrained position, urging people not to rush to conclusions and to wait for the results of the investigation. Political analyst Ihar Tyshkevich discussed in the Belsat studio why official Minsk is avoiding further escalation with Kyiv and who might benefit from such an incident.