The "Venezuela scenario" for Belarus hinges not on its impossibility, but on the role of an external player. A military option involving the United States is unlikely due to the lack of infrastructure and the perception of Belarus as a zone of Russian influence. Unlike Venezuela and Iran, Belarus is of strategic importance to the Kremlin, and in the event of a crisis in the country, Moscow would be the key decision-maker. This opinion was expressed to Belsat by Andrei Kazakevich, Director of the Political Sphere Institute.