Russia may have the means to attempt to challenge NATO in Europe within a few years of the ceasefire, Must claims.
However, Russia's Ukrainian war veterans could also pose a threat to other countries in the short term.
,,They can be used in other directions, and one of those directions could be our neighborhood, says Thomas Nilsson, head of the Swedish military intelligence service Must.
Military intelligence services in Europe have issued one prediction after another this winter. For example, Denmark warns that Russia could be ready to declare war on one or more NATO countries in the Baltic region within two years of the ceasefire.
As SVT writes, according to the Swedish assessment, Russia will dare to challenge NATO in Europe in "a few years".
,,I would say we are talking about a few years... At the moment, our assessment is that Russia is avoiding this, Thomas Nilsson believes.
He emphasizes that such an action would trigger the collective defense guaranteed by NATO, which is the basis of Sweden's defense.
However, according to Swedish military intelligence, there is one factor that could increase the threat in the short term: what Russia could do after the ceasefire in Ukraine with its hundreds of thousands of troops.
,,In the slightly shorter term, it could happen if [the Russians] manage to release the capabilities, units, soldiers and equipment that are currently tied up in Ukraine. These resources could go in another direction.
According to SVT, NATO countries believe that Russia has 400,000 contract soldiers in Ukraine and 100,000 conscripts on Russian territory. There is concern that traumatized Russian soldiers may have difficulty readjusting to society.
,,Perhaps some of them will continue to be used in military units and transferred to other areas, including our immediate neighborhood, says Thomas Nilsson.
urs,pj/belsat.eu
