Before Donald Trump and his administration came to power, there were several concerns about cutting off military aid to Ukraine or even "selling" Ukraine to Putin. Such worries have not yet been confirmed as reality. However, the problem ha
The decision to suspend and evaluate U.S. civilian foreign aid has affected over 100 countries. Primarily Ukraine, along with independent media and organizations from Russia and Belarus.
Culture wars are real wars
The situation with the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has become a controversial issue in the United States. The Trump administration is initiating either the dismantling of the agency or its complete restructuring. The new leadership accuses USAID of not following a U.S. agenda but promoting a left-leaning or globalist agenda, whatever that means. There was a lot of discussion regarding a multi-million dollar deal on condoms that USAID was reportedly set to deliver to the Gaza Strip. The White House initially shared this information. But, after investigating the matter, the British newspaper The Guardian discovered it was a false statement. Nonetheless, the entire incident highlights the atmosphere in which these events are taking place.
The situation is an internal issue, primarily for the United States, involving its political disputes, often referred to as culture wars, and the radical plans proposed by Donald Trump and Elon Musk to dismantle what they call the Deep State. The new government's agenda also includes plans to reduce the size of the entire federal administration. In cases where positions are not eliminated, they aim to replace long-term officials with new individuals.
Let's allow the Americans to manage their own conflicts, as the organization of their country is their concern. However, we must acknowledge that events in the U.S. have a significant impact worldwide, including in the East. In this case, this influence is paramount.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he is currently acting director of the USAID and assured that there will be no complete liquidation:
,,- There are a lot of functions of USAID that are going to continue, that are going to be part of American foreign policy, but it has to be aligned with American foreign policy.”
CBS News and Reuters, citing sources within the U.S. administration, report that USAID will undergo significant staff cuts and will primarily focus on economic activities moving forward. The effort to streamline USAID will be led by Musk, who Trump appointed to reduce the size of the administration. It is widely known that Musk is also strongly motivated by his ideological beliefs in this endeavor.
As of now, USAID employees have been told not to come to work at headquarters in Washington. The organization's website is also down.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Svoboda, funded by U.S. public funds through Congress, notes that USAID has provided Ukraine with billions in humanitarian aid, development assistance, and direct budget support.
This funding supported various Ukrainian media, allowing them to remain independent from the authorities and Ukrainian oligarchs, as well as artists and various social initiatives, including those on the Internet. It must be acknowledged that the quality of these initiatives varied significantly. Some were extensive, focusing on anti-corruption efforts or fact-checking. In contrast, others raised questions about their validity, as they primarily served the interests of incompetent creators looking to make money. However, such issues are common in any grant activity and represent an inherent risk.
Svitlana Musia from the independent Kyiv Anti-Corruption Commission stated, as Radio Free Europe/Radio Svoboda reported, that the suspension of USAID funds for Ukraine will harm civil society. She argues that this represents a significant decrease in American support for democratic reforms and stability in the country.
Staggering amounts or staggering addiction?
El País, a Spanish newspaper, estimated that more than 100 Ukrainian organizations in the cultural and media sectors suddenly found themselves without financial support. Most of these small independent Ukrainian media outlets had been surviving on USAID subsidies. Among them were websites like Bihus.info and Slidstvo.info, which were also recognized internationally for their investigative journalism focused on anti-corruption efforts. American money via USAID accounted for about 80 percent of their budget. The paradox lies in the fact that Donald Trump and his supporters accused the Joe Biden administration during the election campaign of failing to address corruption in Ukraine. At the same time, these portals also exposed scandals within the Ukrainian government. However, once Trump took office, it became clear that this investigative activity was interrupted. Those involved in Ukrainian corruption must be feeling relieved.
The Hromadske channel is well-known, respected, and frequently quoted not only in Ukraine. Additionally, some of its projects have been funded by USAID grants plus supported by its editorial team, who have also encouraged viewers to contribute through donations. Overall, Ukraine has received significant humanitarian and social aid from the United States.
The country is at war and is critically dependent on U.S. aid, which includes both military support and other forms of assistance. In 2023, according to Spanish El Pais reports, Ukrainian entities received grants from USAID totaling 16.5 billion Euros (approximately 17 121 866 190,00 USD). By comparison, the average annual USAID aid to other countries is about 545 million Euros (approximately 565 560 970,00 USD).
Given that we live in a time of war, both kinetic and cognitive and hybrid, support for media and society is almost as important as military spending. Such assistance provides the essential context for the entire situation. Therefore, reducing funding for media and organizations that strengthen society weakens these entities, regardless of the donor's right to determine how their money is spent.
However, some voices in Ukraine, such as the well-known video blogger Yuri Romanenko, argue that it may be better for Ukraine in the long run. The statistics presented are alarming and suggest a significant informational and ideological dependence on the United States, particularly on the agenda of the American Democratic Party. This party has maintained considerable influence over various American institutions for nearly decades, regardless of changes in power. While Ukraine prefers to reduce its dependence on Russia, it must assert its sovereignty. It means that Ukraine must be able to express its voice and make decisions it deems appropriate for its state and society. Relying heavily on Western financial support may not be sustainable in the long term.
The question remains: where are the media and non-governmental organizations in Ukraine supposed to obtain their funding? Traditionally, they have relied on support from oligarchs and the state, but this has proven ineffective. Is support from the European Union a viable option? Yes, but as long as Ukraine is not a member of the EU, foreign funding continues to be limited. Unfortunately, Ukrainian society, particularly during wartime, lacks the resources to generate substantial domestic financing for the media and organizations, restricting their ability to operate freely. The situation is quite challenging.
Cuba - Ukraine. Common cause
The Ukrainians can only place their hopes in the person of Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Let us recall: he comes from the Cuban community in Florida. It is the most anti-communist and anti-Moscow community in the United States. The Cuban diaspora often supports Ukraine openly and privately in various ways. They share a sense of solidarity with Ukraine, as both countries have experienced the repercussions of Soviet influence and domination. Cuban emigrants are dedicated to the principles of freedom, democracy, and human rights. Many community members, including figures like Marco Rubio, tend to align more with Republican, conservative, and religious values. They are not classic "Trumpists". Instead, their attitude towards the Republican Party is more of a tactical alliance. Rubio shares a similar worldview with his constituents, which gives the Ukrainians hope that he will continue to support funding for Ukraine's media and civil society. However, he might adjust the topics, such as ideological modifications.
The exact circumstances apply to media outlets and opposition groups in Belarus and Russia, although on a smaller scale due to significantly lower funding. These institutions and organizations primarily operate from abroad but can also function more or less openly within Russia and Belarus. For instance, the media often gather information for their investigative pieces through various channels. USAID also operated officially behind today's "Iron Curtain," just as U.S. diplomatic and consular missions operate. However, this is on a very limited scale, especially after 2022.
Russian political emigration and Putin's paranoia
It's widely acknowledged as an open secret that Russian opposition organizations and media mostly rely on funding from Washington. However, many prefer to keep this information under wraps to avoid providing ammunition for Kremlin propaganda, which often claims that the opposition is under the influence of the United States.
Among the competing centers, the one led by former Russian oligarch and Putin's political prisoner Mikhail Khodorkovsky, along with his Open Russia foundation, is in a relatively strong position. Although he is not as powerful and wealthy as he was before Putin targeted him, there are several indications that Khodorkovsky possesses substantial funds for his activities and has expressed political ambitions. He aims to assume power in Russia in the future. It is suggested that the Kremlin is pleased with the issues surrounding USAID and, more broadly, Trump's directive to halt foreign aid. In this context, Khodorkovsky is also satisfied, especially given his recent rivalry with the so-called "Navalny team" and the Anti-Corruption Foundation. There have been allegations of orchestrating attacks, collaborating with Kremlin insiders, and engaging in corrupt practices. Khodorkovsky may become a central figure in Russian political emigration. However, it is unlikely that this will help him gain power in Russia if Putin were to fall. He has been away from the country for too long. Nevertheless, that's a different discussion. For now, Khodorkovsky clearly feels that he has been given an opportunity.
There is another perspective regarding Trump's decision to cut foreign aid. For months, there has been unofficial speculation in Western media that one of the conditions for an agreement with the West concerning issues beyond the war might be Putin's demand to withdraw the American financial support for media and groups that oppose him. In Putin's paranoid worldview, the demonic U.S. and the “collective West” are continuously conspiring to overthrow him. However, the funds provided by States to the opposition in Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine are relatively small. Is the Trump administration granting privileges to Putin for his internal political interests? These questions are becoming increasingly relevant, especially since Western media has reported that Musk, believed to be at the center of this situation, is in personal contact with Putin. One day, the details of what is happening behind the scenes may come to light.
What about Belarus?
The Belarusian emigration, opposition, and diaspora are much less dependent on American support and primarily rely on assistance from the European Union, particularly from Lithuania and Poland. Vilnius and Warsaw serve as the centers for the Belarusian alternative government in exile, and these cities host the most critical independent Belarusian media outlets and various social organizations. It is worth noting that USAID only opened its office in Vilnius last year, specifically to focus on Belarusian affairs.
Belarusian emigration is progressing positively, with many individuals successfully living, working, and conducting business in Poland and Lithuania. It has created an independent base of Belarusian recipients, clients, donors, and potential investors in these countries. While the reduction of American funding has significantly affected Belarusian media and organizations, the level of dependence on American money is not as pronounced as it is for Ukraine or Russian emigration. The U.S. Department of State officially reports that since Belarus gained independence in 1992, the United States government has allocated over 1.1 billion USD in foreign aid to Belarus across various sectors. This amount is significantly less than the support provided to Ukraine.
Challenges can present opportunities. For Poland and the EU, this could mean increased financial support for media outlets and organizations that assist Ukraine and the Belarusian and Russian opposition. The EU and its member countries should enhance their soft power, media presence, and institutions, taking advantage of the gap left by the Americans. It is the moment to act.
Marcin Herman / belsat.eu
Translated by PEV
The Editorial Staff may not share the Author's opinion.
